In early April, under the combined influence of the OPEC meeting to increase production, the release of strategic oil reserves in the United States, and the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the once-high international oil price fell below $100. The latest market data on April 11 showed that the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures in May closed down 4.04% at US$94.29/barrel; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June closed down 4.18% at US$98.48/barrel, which made car owners Confidence in the next round of oil price cuts. In the lubricant market, however, it is a different story. On April 18, the 12% price increase policy of lubricant additive giant Lubrizol will officially take effect. While this round of collective lubricant price increases has come to an end, it has also turned into a final event that overwhelmed the optimistic expectations of lubricant distributors. a straw.

It is rare to see a turning point in lubricating oil prices in May

"Additives are one of the important indicators that determine the cost of lubricating oil. The global supply is basically monopolized by a few European and American brands such as Lubrizol and BASF. Before the price of additives is adjusted back, they are not optimistic about the future price of lubricating oil." A senior distributor expressed his opinion. Views on the future lubricant market. In fact, the analysis of lubricant price trends has been a hot topic in the industry in recent months. Summarizing the opinions of all parties, the following conclusions can be roughly sorted out:

The situation in Europe continues to be tense, and sanctions against Russia have exacerbated the oil supply crisis, which will be difficult to reverse in the short term;

The price of raw materials related to the strong lubricant industry chain has increased greatly, and the lubricant brand cannot fully digest it;

The epidemic in Europe and the United States is raging, consumer demand is weak, upstream refineries are under-operated, and the supply of base oil is not smooth. Although the imported base oil of more than 2 million tons per year is only about a quarter of the total annual consumption of base oil in my country, most of them are the second and third types of base oils used to blend medium and high-end lubricants. At present, the domestic production capacity is not fully alternative.

"In recent years, the international oil price has been like a roller coaster. When it is low, it is more than ten dollars, and the most expensive is more than one hundred dollars. In fact, the lubricating oil has increased by less than 20% in ten years. The maintenance price of a popular model 4S According to the table, in 2016, the preferred oil was 288 yuan for 4 liters, and now it has risen to 328 yuan, which is more than 10% higher. As lubricating oil, if you simply follow the crude oil market, it is a matter of carving out a sword. Compared with other commodities, lubricating oil has risen. Not much." There is a saying, "Rough words are not rough", a senior dealer who did not want to be named, in a slightly ridiculed tone, told some "big truths" generally recognized by industry insiders.

It is meaningless to tangle about prices, and how to operate in the future is the key.

Over 40% of dealers stock up to meet spring demand

The fluctuation of lubricant prices has inevitably led to the reshuffle of lubricant production and sales channels. Regarding the future business route, there are also differences of opinion among the dealers. An industry survey on the "price surge" initiated by an industry portal shows that although a considerable number of dealers believe that demand is sluggish, price increases are difficult to change, and they plan to shrink the front line, more than 40% of the respondents said that "To take the initiative to replenish."

The reason is, first of all, the editor believes that it is directly related to the "microclimate" in the macro environment. Although the price of lubricating oil is generally rising in the industry, the channel policy, supply capacity and brand influence of different brands have also caused factual differences in sales status. An agent dealer who has long-term cooperation with Sinopec Great Wall Lubricants said that the brand's market warning is very timely. At the beginning of the year, he reminded everyone to replenish at a low level. Therefore, the overall price of its own inventory products has a certain advantage over its peers. "Great Wall Lubricant completed the price adjustment in early March, leaving us more time to operate. For example, some brands only notified the price increase at the end of March, which caught the dealers by surprise, and this wave of market had to be empty."

Secondly, with the arrival of the spring oil change season, with the deployment of spring ploughing, the demand for lubricants for industrial users and drivers and car owners in most parts of the country has increased significantly. It is not difficult to find out that some important cities in the north have fully resumed work and production. The maintenance delay and engineering shutdown caused by the black swan event may lead to a wave of retaliatory lubricant consumption from late April to the end of May. climax.

Finally, the editor believes that nearly half of the dealers are optimistic about the future industry, which is also related to the irreversibility of the consumption upgrade trend. Unlike agents and wholesale channels, which are different from the risks and losses, the terminal retail channels of lubricating oil are generally optimistic. A person in charge of a chain repair shop sighed with emotion: "Now that the car ownership is so large, there is no need to worry about selling good lubricating oil. Private cars are generally only maintained twice a year. Car owners are not very sensitive to the price of lubricating oil, and generally pay more attention to quality and quality. Word of mouth. Yesterday, I met a car owner. After the warranty was released, he maintained it in our store. He specified that the Great Wall Jinjixing JP1 0W-20 should be used. Three-way catalysis, the big brands of domestic products are more assured."

"The polarization is very serious now. Big-name domestic products such as Great Wall Lubricant are very popular in stores. Now, consumers are more supportive of domestic products than before, and everyone thinks that there are no fakes. During the peak period of May 1 self-driving tour, we still I need to find an agent for replenishment. However, the prices of some small and medium-sized brands have risen sharply recently, and the price advantage is gone, and some cannot be sold.”

As the saying goes, Xiao He defeated Xiao He. In the past, a large number of lubricating oil channel brands only retained the lubricating oil blending ability, and the additives and base oils were completely relied on outsourcing. Although they maintained the advantage of "asset-light operation", they could fight price wars. But in fact, not only does the quality of each batch of products fluctuate greatly, but upstream sentiment and the health of the supply chain are also directly related to the life and death of the brand. At the moment when the huge waves are rolling, it is very easy to be eliminated, causing irreversible effects on agents and retailers.

To sum up, the editor reminds the majority of industry participants to look down on the inevitable price increases and devote more energy to optimizing the inventory structure and sorting out the brand relationship. Targeting the cooperation target on the international and domestic brands with good reputation, guaranteed quality and solid supply chain like Great Wall Lubricant, I believe that we will be able to complete a key butterfly change in the lubricating oil market this spring.